Parlays are growing 2x month over month on Kalshi, but relatively flat on Polymarket. Here’s an overview of the landscape of prediction market parlays today.
Log scale - see non-log scale at bottom
Kalshi parlays are doing 3 orders of magnitude more volume per month than Polymarket, and are seeing vertical growth, whereas parlays on Polymarket are in their infancy after the recent combos launch. This is direct evidence that great UX - the ability to construct your own parlays on the markets of interest to the user - is core to the parlay / combo experience.
Volumes on Polymarket have historically centered around macro (specifically Nothing Ever Happens) while sports is a growing new category, whereas on Kalshi they are almost exclusively on sports (despite combos being available across multiple).
The top parlays by total market volume on Polymarket and Kalshi:
It is interesting to see interest in mentions / Grammys, though on Kalshi we see 99% of volume on sports (cross-category is also sports).
Parlays are still in their infancy on prediction markets. On sportsbooks parlays account for 25-35% of dollars wagered, and 60% to 75% of a sportsbook's total revenue. Today it is ~20+% of Kalshi’s total platform volume and a negligible % of Polymarket’s volume, we estimate that Kalshi has made ~30m+ from combos to date (historical total volume + weighted average execution cost + Kalshi’s pricing). No other third party platforms have meaningful volume, OI or fees.
We strongly believe that prediction markets will continue to grow, and that parlays will be the instrument that users see as a path to exponential payoffs and as a hedging, speculative tool on correlated events. The market for prediction market derivatives is in its absolute infancy
Chart 1, not in log scale.
Originally posted on X.